A decade following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Stir Debate
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a national vote.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or activists are willing to participate with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, marshalling financial and social figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his era is possible and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will eventually be defeated but each side has got something to learn from the other's positions."
Request for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."
